Never before the presidential race had begun so soon in Mexico.Three years are missing for the elections, neither the Ecuador of the Sexenio and Andrés Manuel López Obrador has yet been reached..Since the beginning of July, the president has been putting names on the table until this week one of the favorites, Marcelo Ebrard, has officially taken one step forward.The Chancellor and Chief of the capital government, Claudia Sheinbaum, are the star candidates.López Obrador has not only been the fastest president to draw his succession.It has also broken with another ritual embedded in Mexican politics since PRI times: the so -called "uncover", direct designation through the president's dedazo.
In Morena, almost everything still happens for the first time.With just 10 years of life, born and developed in the image and likeness of López Obrador, the succession had aroused high expectations as it was a crucial milestone for the party: the renewal of its leadership.López Obrador's personalist style, and its echoes to the rigid presidentialism of the old PRI, had even fed speculation about a possible return of the dedazo tradition.
Más informaciónMarcelo Ebrard se destapa para la carrera por la sucesión de López ObradorMorena decidirá el candidato a las presidenciales de 2024 mediante una encuesta a la población
The president announced Wednesday that "the people of Mexico will be the one who elected the party candidate".It will be done through a survey system among the population throughout the country.A method already used by Morena and surrounded by controversy due to its lack of transparency.Thus start an unprecedented background still plagued with unknowns.An unstalled campaign of more than three years that will multiply the exhibition and wear of Ebrard and Sheinbaum.Both, trusted paintings by López Obrador with a long career by his side.Two senior government positions that will face the challenge of continuing everyday management avoiding interference.
The route to the PRI uncovering, last tour in 2018 by Enrique Peña Nieto, was a encoded road full of clues that should be read with attention.In the year before the elections they began to be around the names of the presidents by means and gatherings.The next step was "La catwalk", a series of appearances in public events and interviews where the applicants sold their virtues.Meanwhile, the president weighted the options with the corresponding shield of the PRI dome, which avoided ruling on the subject.Until the anointed one was public with an official announcement of the president.
Despite the distance that López Obrador has wanted."Not at all," says Ignacio Marván, professor of the CIDE and political analyst.“Before it was a deaf war, without open media and the scrutiny of public opinion.Now it is a different political contract, open competition.López Obrador has decided to open the game and make it public ”.
New blow to the opposition
The usual time of Mexican politics marked that after the intermediate elections slowly began to mature the presidential race, but this time everything has accelerated unpublished.“In orthodox terms, it is obviously premature.But we are not in orthodox times, ”adds the CIDE political scientist, who interprets López Obrador's movement as an example of his personal seal."Intends to throw the political discussion forward.Another way to sell change of change by launching an idea of the future.And, in addition, gain space and driving capacity ".
A new attempt to mark the political agenda and at the same time to control the processes within the party.A young training on which an enormous ancestry imposes and that could be diminished as the end of his mandate approaches.“This is possible due to the precarious institutionality of Morena.Ahead of the times, the president believes herself capable of controlling the game and political ambitions of the candidates, ”adds Marván.
Control in and out.With his latest movement, López Obrador returns to the opposition.Despite the rebound in the elections of June to Congress, the PRI and the PAN still drag the blow of the overwhelming Victoria of Morena in 2018.Disarticulated, without a clear course or for the moment no strong leadership, Morena's candidate will depart as a favorite.The unprecedented electoral alliance with which the PRI, PAN and PRD were presented jointly to the June elections will have a fire test to measure its strength to measure its strength.With the return of the sessions in Congress, the Electoral Alliance intends to become a parliamentary alliance.
Two favorites and a lot of noise
On July 5, López Obrador spoke for the first time openly about his succession.During one of his morning conferences he launched a surprising battery of names.Together with Sheinbaum and Ebrard, he placed the Mexican ambassador to the UN, Juan Ramón de la Fuente;the ambassador to the USA, Esteban Moctezuma;To the Secretary of Economy, Tatiana Clouthier, and Energía, Rocío Nahle."This was no occurrence.Among those six names very few have the possibility of enjoying the presidential favor.He opened the deck very deliberately with the intention of distracting attention and protecting in his favorites, ”considers Francisco Abundis, director of the opinion analysis firm Parametry.
The first two names of that list, Ebrard and Sheinbaum, who had been playing for months in all pools, suffered a hard setback in May after the traumatic Metro accident in Mexico City where 26 people and dozens died more were injured.The expansive wave of the tragedy affected both Ebrard, mayor of the city when the section was built, and Sheinbaum, current head of government.The gestures of protection of the mayor have been repeated, such as the centralization in the president of communication on the advances in the investigation of the accident to take it out of focus."It follows that she has more affinity with her because she grew from the beginning with him," says Marván, advisor to the López Obrador government in Mexico City (2000-2006) and a connoisseur close to the career of the two candidates.
The two have been next to López Obrador for decades but Ebrard's trajectory begins before by Mexican political meanders.Formed in the PRI, he became an independent deputy, but protected by the Green Party, before entering 2002 the capital's team led by López Obrador, still in front of the PRD.Since then, loyalty samples have occurred, one of the values most appreciated by López Obrador.In 2000, he got off the fight for the mayor's office to join the candidacy of the current president, to which he would happen six years later.In 2012, with the inertia of his good image as the capital chief he presented himself as a candidate for the presidency by the PRD.Lost for a span against López Obrador.He instantly accepted the defeat and again joined the project that had already been his boss.
Despite loyalty samples, Ebrard himself declared this Saturday in an interview with Milenio that this time "it would be an incongruity to be thinking of decline in favor of another person, that today is not in my mind".The parametry director considers that, after all, Ebrard "was his competitor and López Obrador does not see him as someone who can repeat his legacy, but as someone more independent".Erected as de facto vice president, the figure of Ebrard has enlarged these three years of Morena government, leading the thorny diplomatic relations with the Donald Trump cabinet or capitalizing on the management of vaccines against COVID.But, precisely, being inside the Executive could play more against him than in favor."It has less space than Sheinbaum and is more conditioned because before any circumstance it can be relieved of the Foreign Ministry by Lopez Obrador," adds Marván.
From the capital of the capital, Sheinbaum's profile is very different.With a cautious speech distant from the stridency and a background as a prestigious scientist - it is a degree in Physics and a doctor in Energy Engineering - his entire political career has developed it next to López Obrador.In 2000 he also entered the capital government as Secretary of the Environment, and then reach the Mayor's Office of a delegation already by Morena and conquer the Government Headquarters in 2018.The parametry director highlights precisely his lack of autonomy and alignment with the Federal Executive: “The Government of Mexico City is a place of great power and autonomy.However, she has been a very disciplined collaborator, always under the shadow of the president ".
In the Dee de Sheinbaum weighs the important fall of votes and loss of mayorships in the capital in recent elections.A water route concentrated in the moderate, urban and middle class electorate.After a first weeks with a low profile after the elections, the capital head took the initiative again with a ristra of public events and changes in her cabinet.The entrance of a heavyweight such as Martí Batres in the Ministry of the Interior and other exponents of the hard line of the party presage a twist in the confrontation strategy from the capital, closer to López Obrador's style than of the characteristic tablefrom Sheinbaum.
Fights him inside the game
The presidential race also has a derivative in the correlation of forces within the party, staged by the turbulent internal elections of last year.The triumph of Mario Delgado as the new president was the victory of the most liberal and pragmatic sector, where Ebrard is also framed.While Sheinbaum is aligned with the most purist sector represented in the dome by the general secretary, Citlalli Hernández."Sheinbaum is more related to the classic tradition of the left while Ebrard can have acceptance among a broader audience," says the CIDE political scientist."But the challenge for him will be to consolidate the support of the party at a time when Delgado is very questioned," adds Marván.
In the absence of knowing how the selection of candidates will be.The controversial survey system has also been criticized from within the party.The leader of the Morena bench in the Senate and prominent picture of the formation, Ricardo Monreal, positioned himself this week against while he also announced his intention to enter the struggle.Despite not being explicitly appointed by the president, Monreal usually appears in all pools as a possible candidate.
The closest antecedent of the controversial survey system was lived with the internal elections of the party.The process lasted for more than a year by unleashing a war between the different factions that have not yet turned off.After a long reguero of complaints, the election entered fully into the judicial field.The Electoral Court entered the scene imposing on the National Electoral Institute (INE) as supervisory body of the process in which three private pollsing companies also participated.The sample was doing a door by search of brunette supporters.After some first results that threw a technical draw, the INE imposed the realization of a new and third survey harshly criticized by the losers of the election.
One of those surveyers was parametry.Its director, Francisco Abundis, defends the system: “It was a transparent, replicable process and with consultable databases.It would be interesting in any case for the INE to enter again this time to guarantee clear and supervised rules ”.The system, inherited from the times of the PRD, has been on several occasions defended by López Obrador as a kind of minor evil due to the difficulties of carrying out a vote.“It shows the weakness of Morena and the Mexican party system.His inability to make primaries and not leave destroyed, ”closes the CIDE political scientist.
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